So, looking beyond the physical trade report, both building permits and credit card spending
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will redefine growth forecasts. Major fundamental themes are evolving for the global markets; and the New Zealand dollar will feel the pressure from two of the most significant of these trends over the coming week. It is no secret that the world's central banks are heading towards
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a unified zero interest rate policy (ZIRP); but that does not mean traders and investors are not busy speculating when the world's
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economy and risk sentiment are due to turn. Bearish
- Inflation trends are still outside the RBNZ's tolerance band, but that means little to policy officials now
- Consumer spending figures hold relatively resilient, but the underlying trend cannot
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be ignored
Major fundamental themes are evolving for the global markets;
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and the New Zealand dollar will feel the pressure from two of the most significant of these trends over the coming week. Economists peg Governor Cello Bollard's reduction at a 100 bps drop to 4.00 percent. This would be a substantial cut;
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but not out of line with its dugald until this point or with the global rate of policy for the rest of the world.
However, this will have a particularly significant influence over the broader currency market due to the kiwi's role as a key risk appetite barometer. One definitive sign that conditions are indeed improving is the direction and
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enos of monetary policy. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the growth readings scheduled for release and especially the RBNZ rate decision set for
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mid-week. Speculators are discounting something a little more severe as economic conditions and risk have recently tightened up. Without the correlation to
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risk sentiment to bolster volatility and send the currency rallying on the slightest sign of risk appetite, FX traders will have to gauge the currency's strength through the equalizing field of growth.
few central banks with room to maneuver, the focus has shifted to those currencies that have long held the highest yields. As one of the smallest and most specialized
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economies of the G10, this island nation is perhaps the most sensitive to the balance between the risk and reward behind all investor decisions. New Zealand Dollar's Reaction
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To RBNZ Cut Could Be Complicated
Fundamental Outlook For New Zealand Dollar. Even at 4.00 percent, the New Zealand dollar will hold one of the top benchmark lending rates among the most liquid currencies.
Both construction
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and credit have taken a significant hit over the past year due to the seizure in financial markets and drop in consumer confidence; so at this point, it is merely gauging the intensity of recession rather than the outcome of growth. When removing yield from the equation,
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of New Zealand is sharply diminished. If Bollard take another significant gouge out of his benchmark, it would be a sign that there is no end in sight and financial and economic risk are still more important than the central bank's vow to stabilize
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inflation (which is still above the defined tolerance band). As one of the smallest and most specialized economies of the G10,
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this island nation is perhaps the most sensitive to the balance between the risk and reward behind all investor decisions.
However, as it continues to drop to earth, the
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kiwi will further be exposed to a fundamental trend that has taken a firm hold of most the industrialized world – growth. What's more, for the kiwi, the closer the cash rate gets to its US and Japanese equivalent, the less significance the currency will have when trends
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due finally change. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the growth readings scheduled for release and especially the RBNZ rate decision set for mid-week. While this small economy is prone to volatile swings in economic activity owing to its heavy dependence on exports of many critical raw materials, the real driver is through domestic sources.
Starting with the event with the greatest potential for market impact; there is little doubt that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision will end with a significant cut on nevin morning in Auckland (late for the Western world).