the end of wave 4. For one, a 5 wave impulse often forms a parallel channel that connects the ends of waves 1 and 3 as well as the ends of waves
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2 and 4. Based on the idea that a number of consecutive declines indicates a specific degree of pessimism, sentiment towards the GBPUSD is the most pessimistic that it has ever been. Despite the evidence that supports a significant
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low, it is more likely that the low is temporary (lasing for perhaps a few months if one has formed / will form at all). That is exactly the scenario that the GBPUSD is in now;
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wave 2 was shallow and slow so wave 4 should retrace a larger portion of wave 3 than has taken place.
Former resistance at 1.5378 intersects with parallel channel resistance on April 24. A com
money market
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corrective formation is a flat, in which wave b retraces most (and sometimes all) of wave a before wave c moves violently in the other direction (this is probably the pattern that has played out in the USDJPY from 97.09). Artus Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every
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weekday morning (930 am EST),
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COT analysis (published mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on JPY on GBP on AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. British Pound / US Dollar
A
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string of consecutive
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advances or declines tends to mark sentiment extremes, and therefore price extremes. The combination of former resistance as support and the position of RSI favor bulls at this point. There has never been an instance when the GBPUSD declined
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9 consecutive
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months € until this month. An advance, as everbank money market account high as 1.54+, is possible before the end of April.
RSI is testing its all time low (monthly closing basis) that occurred in October
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1976. Additional technical evidence supports a sizeable bounce. Wave 4 could be complete at 1.4990 but a number of observations suggest this as unlikely. No trade is without risk and this one may be riskier than most. There are some rare patterns
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in this count, but they are valid.
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He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Evidence that a Strong Rally is around the Corner
In this special report, I make a technical hyman for buying the British Pound
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at current levels. That has only happened once,
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in March 1983 € and a 1,500 pip rally took place the next 2 months. Wave 2 was also a flat, but unorthodox in that wave c was a truncated ending diagonal.
Second, waves 2 and 4 typically alternate in form (guideline of alternation) € if wave 2 is shallow and slow then wave 4 will be deeper and fast. Wave 2
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was a flat with a
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truncated wave c. A resistance line extended from the September 1992 and October 1998 highs has held as support since the low at 1.35. Former resistance becomes support and vice / versa. 6 consecutive declines (blue) have led to some of the most important bottoms in GBPUSD history. Wave iv of 3 was an
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expanding triangle. It is the potential reward relative to the assumed risk that makes this trade attractive. For example, 7 consecutive down days would indicate a bearish sentiment of smaller degree than 7 consecutive down months.
The Munmro Wave count above suggests that 1.35 marks the wave 3 low within a 5 wave decline. If the GBPUSD rallies enough to close above 1.43 then the pair will have declined for 8 consecutive months (green). Different periods indicate corresponding degrees of sentiment. Please send comments about this report to
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