All told, British Pound volatility is the one thing that can be reasonably expected as the multitude of conflicting leads ahead of the BOE announcement
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is sure to catch at least some market participants off-guard. Overnight index swaps suggest the reduction has
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already been priced in by the market, but also reveal that traders expect the central bank to shift to neutral going forward. Consumer spending is likely to remain sluggish in the near to medium term as falling consumer confidence and a rising unemployment rate trim demand,
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opening the door for continued improvement in trading terms. If the downturn lasts longer than
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currently expected however, the ECB may find itself forced to play catch-up having been noticeably less aggressive than other major central banks in easing monetary conditions. Importantly, the
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market looks unconvinced for now as overnight index swaps show traders pricing in a neutral outlook for the next 12 months. Australia € Trade Balance issued a narrower surplus than expected in January, printing at A$970 million versus forecasts of a A$1.1 billion result.
Andrew Sentance warned of deflation and said
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there is € a strong
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elwyn for providing additional stimulus € while Krispin Blanchflower called monetary policy "overly restrictive". Economists € forecasts call for a 50 basis point reduction to bring borrowing costs to a new historic low of 0.50%. Such as decision would take as given
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that economic activity will at worst find a stable bottom through this year, averting a slide into deflation.
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The British Pound also saw selling pressure, testing as low as 1.4133. The Euro and the British Pound both slipped lower against the US Dollar in overnight trading. The ECB has diligently built
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up expectations that rates will stabilize at 1.50%; an unexpected dovish shift in the commentary accompanying today € release is likely to put significant selling pressure on the currency as traders scramble to price in the
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new yield outlook.
To contact Ilya regarding this or other articles he has authored, please email him at ispivak at dot com Add
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personalized My Yahoo. Indeed, while the European Commission expects the collective Euro Zone economy will
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shrink -1.9%, a survey of economists conducted by calls for a bleaker outcome at -2.2%. On balance, the current trajectory
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sets the stage for strength in the long term outlook for the Australian Dollar against currencies corresponding to countries/regions where the external balance
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is expected to continue to deteriorate, such as the Euro and the Yen. The implications for the Euro are decidedly bearish. Rather, the MPC voted unanimously to seek government approval for quantitative easing.
For complete analysis of all the major currency pairs, please see the latest
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weekly technical outlook report. Against this backdrop, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to announce a 50 basis point rate cut to
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bring the benchmark borrowing costs to 1.50%. Considerable uncertainly also hangs over the interest rate announcement from the Bank of England.
Key Overnight Developments € Australian Trade Surplus Widens fxcm forex reviews in January as Imports Plunge € Euro, British Pound Pull Back Ahead of Interest Rate Announcements
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The Euro lost as much as -0.6% against the US Dollar in overnight trading, testing below the 1.26 level. Still, the reading marks an improvement over a revised A$414 million surplus registered in the previous month as a drop in imports
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(-7.3%) outpaced the decline in exports (-5.0%). Signs of deepening recession will be on full display ahead of the pivotal interest rate announcement from the European Central Bank. German Retail Sales are expected to have decline -0.7% in the year to January, the
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third consecutive contraction; French Producer Prices are set to issue the first negative print in over 6 years, falling -0.4% in January from a year
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before; finally, the overall Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product is likely to show that the regional economy shrank -1.5% through the fourth quarter and -1.2% from the three months ending the worst performance since the introduction of the single currency. On the other hand, a pair of statements from BOE officials last week bolstered a dovish bias. Forex Volatility Ahead on ECB, BOE Interest Rate Announcements (Euro Open) The forex market looks set for a volatile session in European trading hours as a murky outlook ahead of interest rate announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England is sure to catch at least some market participants off-guard. Minutes from the last policy meeting revealed a reluctance to take rates lower for fear that this would hurt bank profitability.